Resale flat prices up 1.2% in 3Q2023: HDB flash estimates

HDB resale flat prices saw a slower growth in 3Q2023, registering a 1.2% q-o-q increase compared to the 1.5% q-o-q growth posted in 2Q2023. Despite this, 14 consecutive quarters of growth – with prices rising 3.8% year-to-date – demonstrate resilience in the market.

HDB resale flat prices have demonstrated resilience over the past 14 consecutive quarters, rising 3.8% year-to-date despite significantly lower than the 8% increase recorded in 2022 and the 9.1% increase recorded in 2021 across the same period. The slower increase of 1.2% q-o-q in 3Q2023 may indicate price resistance setting in amid inflationary and affordability concerns.

Despite the slower increase, 6,592 resale flat transactions were still recorded by HDB in 3Q2023; 2.9% higher than the previous quarter, but 9.7% lower y-o-y. This is the lowest 3Q volume recorded in the last three years since 2020. Factors that may have contributed to this include higher grants for first-time home buyers, which were announced in February as part of Budget 2023, as well as a delay in the August Build-To-Order (BTO) sales launch.

A further change in schedule for the November BTO exercise, which typically includes the sale of balance flats, has been pushed to December. This likely prompted couples in urgent need of housing to focus on the HDB resale market as it represents a more immediate and accessible option.

Changes in housing policies announced during the National Day Rally in August may also have contributed to the higher resale prices and transaction volume. These include a new classification system for BTO projects that would segregate new flats according to locational attributes, rather than the previous system of “mature” and “non-mature”.

From 2H2024, BTO units will be categorised as either Standard, Plus or Prime flats. Standard flats are located islandwide and come with standard subsidies and restrictions. Plus and Prime flats, on the other hand, are located closer to the city centre and come with more subsidies and restrictions such as a longer minimum occupation period and limitations for renting out the property.

This reclassification of BTO flats has likely caused buyers to pivot towards existing resale flats in mature estates, which will not face these restrictions. Buyers are then willing to pay more for such flats, which may explain why there were an estimated 127 resale flats transacted for at least $1 million in 3Q2023 – 21% more than the previous quarter – and 50 of these transactions took place in mature estates in the month of August alone. In comparison, Huttons Asia’s Lee Sze Teck expects there to be more than 400 million-dollar HDB transactions by the end of the year.

In the upcoming sales launch in October, 6,800 BTO flats in Choa Chu Kang, Kallang Whampoa, Queenstown and Tengah will be offered. Another 6,000 flats in Bukit Panjang, Jurong West, Woodlands, Bedok, Bishan, Bukit Merah and Queenstown will be up for sale in December.

The Tampines Avenue 11 Condo will also have improved access to recreational spaces, such as PAssion WaVe @ Tampines, which will boast a range of sports and recreational spaces, such as a sports court, gymnasium, and even a rock climbing wall.

In light of the incoming supply and ongoing affordability concerns, OrangeTee & Tie’s Christine Sun predicts that resale prices may climb slower for the rest of the year, likely between 4% to 5.5%.